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Use the basic NFL betting strategies below to help you on your way to a profiting NFL season. #1 NFL Betting Strategy – Money/Bankroll Management. When you are betting on the NFL season. WhoScored.com is one of the most complete databases online making it an incredible resource when it comes to football betting. It covers daily fixtures, live scores, news, stats plus detailed. Betting on football, or soccer, call it whatever you want, adds another level of excitement and those passionate about soccer betting can find great value with our daily bet tips. Finding good value with odds that fairly reflect a bettor’s prospects of winning is paramount to successful betting and we make sure to make it an integral part. EPISODE 58 All the New Year football and Kev’s quiz of 2020. 30 December 2020. There isn’t much between the pair in terms of betting with Donny at 2.66 13/8 and Oxford at 3.0 2/1. It could also be a high-scoring game if you are playing Over 2.5, as Oxford have netted 20.
There are all kinds of misconceptions surrounding football betting. For whatever reason, there are certain statements that get repeated time and time again even though they’re not accurate. And, because they’re repeated so often, people start to believe them as fact. Many of these myths are pretty harmless, but some result in people making poor betting decisions.
A good example of this is the idea that parlays are for suckers. A lot of bettors, even some smart ones, completely avoid parlays because they believe that they are fundamentally “bad” wagers. This is simply not true. Many people lose money on parlays, yes. They’re certainly one of the harder wagers to win money from. But most people lose money on point spreads and totals too. Does that mean that those wagers are also suckers’ bets?
Of course it doesn’t. The fact is that any type of wager CAN be a suckers’ bet. But only if used in the wrong way. If people fail to apply the right strategies, and consistently make mistakes, then they’re going to lose money regardless of what types of wager they place. On the other hand, every type of wager has the potential to be profitable. With a sensible approach, and some appropriate strategies, anyone can make money from any type of wager. Including parlays.
Now, it’s important to note that parlays are actually very popular wagers. Especially on football. Although some bettors choose to avoid them, a lot of people love them. The problem is that many of these people often approach them in the wrong way. In fact, it is for that exact reason why bookmakers love parlays too. Their profit margin on these wagers is typically very high, because most of their customers simply don’t know how to use parlays effectively.
The purpose of this article is to change that, in some small way at least. We’re going to help you avoid throwing money away on parlays, and teach you some strategy for using them when betting on football. We start with a detailed explanation of how they work, and then offer some advice for choosing when to bet them. Next, we outlined our preferred football parlay strategies and explained how to implement them. We finish with a few general tips.Football Parlays Explained
Let’s start with the basics. You can skip this section if you’re already familiar with parlays, and move straight on to the strategy. Please read through this information if you don’t fully understand how football parlays work though.
Parlays are actually a lot simpler than many people think. There are some slightly complicated aspects to them, which we’ll cover shortly, but at a basic level the concept is pretty straightforward.A parlay is just a wager that combines multiple selections into one single bet.
Fundamentally, that’s all there is to parlays. Instead of making one single selection, you make two or more. If each selection is correct, the wager wins. If any of the selections are incorrect, the wager loses. Parlays are obviously harder to win than single selection wagers, but the tradeoff is that the odds are higher. So, when they do win, the payout is bigger.
Here’s a quick comparison of betting singles and betting parlays, to illustrate exactly how parlays work. Let’s say that we’re looking at the NFL games for the upcoming weekend. The following three teams catch our eye.
*Seattle Seahawks (+3.5)
*Dallas Cowboys (-3.5)
*Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5)
Each team is at odds of -110 to cover. We decide to back each team to cover, and place three single wagers of $110. Our total outlay is $330. For each wager that wins, we’ll get back $210. $100 in winnings plus our initial stake of $110. The following outcomes are possible.
*All three teams cover. Our total return is $630 (3 x $210). Our total profit is $300 ($630 – $330).
*Two teams cover, one team doesn’t. Our total return is $420. Our total profit is $90.
*One team covers, two teams don’t. Our total return is $210. We’ve made a loss of $120.
*All three teams fail to cover. We’ve lost our entire $330 outlay.
Now let’s say we decide to place a three team parlay instead of three single wagers. The odds for such a wager are typically +600. We decide to stake $100. There are only two relevant outcomes now.
*All three teams cover. Our total return is $700, for a profit of $600.
*One or more of the teams fails to cover. We’ve lost our $100 stake.
The main advantage of betting a parlay here is obvious. Our potential profit is $600, which is twice the amount we could win if betting three singles. Plus we’re only putting $100 at risk, instead of $330.
The main disadvantage of the parlay is equally obvious. If just one team fails to cover, we get nothing. When we were betting singles, we stood to make a profit if only one team failed to cover. And if two teams failed to cover, we’d still get some of our initial stake money back. The only way we would be at a total loss is if all three teams failed to cover.
This all highlights exactly why parlays are so popular for both bookmakers AND bettors. Bookmakers like them because they’re hard to win. It’s difficult to get one selection correct, and it becomes even more challenging when multiple selections need to be correct. But bettors still like parlays, because they offer the chance to win large sums of money from comparatively small stakes.
There are three more things you need to know about parlays before we move on to the strategy.
*What selections can be included.
*How payouts are calculated.
*The effect of pushes.
The example we provided above was based on using point spread selections. Parlays can use a variety of different selections though. You can include totals, moneylines, props, futures, or just about anything. You can even combine different types. So, for example, you could place a parlay that included a point spread selection and two totals selections. Or you could place a parlay that included two props and three moneyline selections. The number of possible combinations is almost limitless.Calculating parlay payouts
Payouts for parlays can be calculated in two different ways, using fixed odds or true odds. Fixed odds are used only when all the selections in a parlay are at -110 odds, so they’re commonly used for parlays involving point spread and total selections. Potential payouts are directly related to how many selections are in the wager. The exact odds will vary at different bookmakers and betting sites, with something like the following usually in place.NUMBER OF SELECTIONSODDS2+2604+10005+20006+40007+75008+100009+1500010+30000114500012+6000013+7500014+9000015+150000
The true odds method is a little different. With this, the odds for each individual selection are multiplied together to give the total odds for the parlay. The payout is therefore the same as if you were to bet on each selection individually and continuously roll the initial stake and the winnings onto the next selection.Football Gambling Reddit
To make this easier to understand, let’s say we bet a three-selection parlay with odds of -110, -105, and -115. The odds for this parlay using the true odds method would be +596.86, so a $100 stake would return a total of $696.86 if every single selection won.
Now let’s see what happens if we bet each selection individually. $100 at -110 would return a total of $190.91. If we then staked that $190.91 at -105, we’d get $372.63 back. Then, finally, $372.63 at -115 would return the $696.86. As you can see, the profit margins are exactly the same.
As a general rule, true odds parlays offer more value than fixed odds parlays. This is not ALWAYS the case though.
If one or more selections in a parlay result in a push, then those selections are effectively removed from the wager. For example, let’s say we included the following three selections in a parlay.
*Carolina Panthers (+6)
*Oakland Raiders (+3)
*Chicago Bears (-3)
If Carolina and Oakland both covered, but Chicago won by exactly three points, we’d be paid out as if we had placed a two-selection parlay. If only Carolina covered, and the other selections were pushes, we’d be paid out as if we had placed a single wager. Please note that this is only the case when the remaining selections are correct. If you get a couple of pushes, but one selection is incorrect, then the whole parlay still loses.
Congratulations! You now know the basics of parlays. However, what you really need to know is how to make money from them. So let’s move on to the strategy advice.
The first thing you should know about parlays is that they are NOT wagers that you should place on a consistent basis. They should be used sparingly, and only in the right circumstances. Don’t start placing parlays every week just because there’s a chance of winning big. The large potential payouts are obviously appealing, but you shouldn’t chase those payouts just for the sake of it. Not only is this the wrong approach, but it will almost certainly cost you money in the long run.
The question, then, is when SHOULD you use parlays? It’s easy to say that you should use them in the right circumstances, but what exactly do these circumstances look like? There isn’t really a single correct answer to this question, but there is one general rule that you should try to stick to.Only place a parlay when it offers better value than backing each selection individually.
This is essentially the key to betting parlays effectively. If you’ve read our article on betting for value on football, then you’ll understand the importance of value. You’ll know that the goal when betting on football (or any sport) is not simply to win as many wagers as possible. It’s actually to find the wagers that offer the most positive expected value.
Identifying value in the betting markets is really the only way to make regular and consistent profits. And you want to maximize that value as best you can. Parlays CAN be a great way to do this. By identifying value in more than one selection, and then combining those selections into a single wager to increase the potential payout, you can multiply the value exponentially. You won’t win all the time of course, because there’s always the risk of one or more selection letting you down. But the increased payouts when you do win can help improve your overall returns.
However, selections that offer value individually are not GUARANTEED to offer better value when combined into a multiple wager. Parlay betting just isn’t quite that straightforward. You’re not looking to place a parlay every time you like the look of more than one selection. Just because you think that three teams are going to cover this weekend, you don’t automatically put them all in a parlay.
Remember, these are wagers to be used sparingly. You have to choose your spots very carefully. Whenever you’re not sure whether the best option is to place single wagers or a parlay, we recommend sticking to the single wagers.Football Betting How To
When it comes to actually determining whether the best value lies in single wagers or a parlay, this is ultimately a matter of personal judgement. Value itself is subjective anyway, because it can only be calculated by assigning probabilities to possible outcomes. This is not an exact science, but in actuality, it’s a matter of opinion.
The trick is to make your opinion as informed as possible. By assessing and analyzing all the information at your disposal, you should be able to assign probabilities with some degree of accuracy. And, if you can do that, you should also be able to work out when parlays are appropriate and when they are not. It’s basically just a case of determining if the probability of ALL your selections winning is high enough to represent value when compared to the odds available.
If any of this is hard to follow, please go back and read the value betting article we linked earlier. This will help to make things a lot clearer.Our Preferred Football Parlay Strategies
Once you’ve grasped the fundamentals of WHEN to bet football parlays, the next thing to consider is HOW to bet them effectively. We’ve established that the aim should be to bet parlays when they offer the right level of value, but it’s finding that value that’s the hard part. This is where our recommended strategies will help.
Please note that these aren’t necessarily the only strategies to consider. There are all kinds of ways to identify good opportunities for placing a parlay. Ideally, the ultimate goal should be to develop your own strategies that work well for you. But, in the meantime, the following strategies are a good place to start. They’ve certainly worked well for us over the years.
*Parlaying big moneyline favorites
*Parlaying off-market spreads and totals
*Correlated parlays
We rank this as one of the very best football betting strategies to use. It’s pretty simple, reasonably low risk and has the potential for long-term success. Although it won’t lead to huge payouts, it can definitely return modest payouts on a regular basis when implemented properly.
The basic idea here is to find two or more favorites that offer good value on the moneyline. Ideally you’re looking for games where the bookmakers have undervalued the favorites for whatever reason, and priced the odds a little higher than they should be. It’s not easy to find such opportunities, but they happen more often than you might think, especially in college football.
It’s not actually essential for the favorites to be undervalued though. It can be beneficial to include moneyline favorites even if they’re accurately priced. The main aim is to find teams that you think are VERY likely to win. Teams that you give at least an 80% chance of winning are preferable.
If you can find two or more such teams, then consider putting them in a moneyline parlay. In theory, this strategy can work with any number of teams, but three or four is optimal in our experience. With just two, we’re not getting the same multiplicative value in the odds. And with more than four, the chances of an upset start to increase to a level that’s not ideal.
So, let’s say that we’ve studied this week’s upcoming games and we’ve found seven teams that are big moneyline favorites. After studying each of the relevant games, we narrow this down to three teams that we think are very likely to win AND offer the right value. These are as follows.
*West Virginia Mountaineers (-550)
*Stanford Cardinals (-450)
*Mississippi State Bulldogs (-600)
With these odds, our potential payout for a $100 parlay on the three teams to win would be $168.52. That’s a profit of $68.52. We’re risking more than we stand to win, but we’ve got a very good chance of winning. This is precisely why we like this strategy. There will be occasions when an upset will cost us, but we can keep those occasions to a minimum by being very selective.
That’s basically the key to success with this strategy. You have to be selective. Don’t put teams in a parlay just because the odds are low. Make sure that you properly analyze teams, and their opponents, to determine just how likely they are to win. And always check to make sure that the odds are reasonable, and not too low. Only then can you consider putting them in a parlay.
This strategy might seem too simple to be effective. It’s often the simplest strategies that work the best when betting on football though. Even then, you still have to work hard to make this strategy successful. As simple as it is, there’s some significant effort required to identify the right teams to include. It’s not as easy as just picking a few favorites at random.
This strategy used to be more valuable than it is today. This is because the football betting markets are much more effective than they used to be, and off-market odds and lines are much harder to find. They do still exist though, so this strategy remains a good option in the right circumstances.
The theory with this strategy is that we want to take maximum advantage of off-market odds and lines by parlaying them with other selections. To explain this in more detail, let’s first look at what constitutes an off-market line. Here’s an example of one.
*Betting Site ANew York +2-110
*New York +2-115
*New York +2.5-110
*New York +4-110
Does anything immediately stand out to you here? Hopefully, you noticed that Betting Site D has set a spread quite different from the other sites. New York is getting four points here, when they’re only getting two or two and a half points with the others. In this situation, it would probably be wise to back New York simply to take advantage of these extra points.
Unless you can identify a specific reason why they should be getting these extra points, there’s a good chance that Betting Site D made a mistake when developing their lines. Even if they’ve moved the line deliberately because they’ve taken a lot of money on Cincinnati, they’re still effectively giving away value. Their need to balance their book is YOUR gain.
This particular example shows a point spread being out of line with the rest of the market. Similar situations arise with totals too. As we’ve stated, they don’t arise very often though. And they don’t tend to last for very long when they do. So you need to move quickly when you see them. Simply betting the off-market line is a good strategy in itself, but you can improve upon that strategy by placing a parlay.
Combining a selection of an off-market spread or total with one or two other selections essentially allows you to increase the overall value on offer. You need to be careful to only include other selections that you’re very confident will win.
This is another strategy that held more value in the past than it does currently. Again, though, it does still have some merit. It’s just a lot harder to use than it used to be. Bookmakers and betting sites rarely allow genuinely correlated parlays these days, so we have to resort to semi-correlated parlays.
Since some of you may not be fa
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*Football Gambling Reddit
*Football Betting How To
*Football Soccer Betting
Use the basic NFL betting strategies below to help you on your way to a profiting NFL season. #1 NFL Betting Strategy – Money/Bankroll Management. When you are betting on the NFL season. WhoScored.com is one of the most complete databases online making it an incredible resource when it comes to football betting. It covers daily fixtures, live scores, news, stats plus detailed. Betting on football, or soccer, call it whatever you want, adds another level of excitement and those passionate about soccer betting can find great value with our daily bet tips. Finding good value with odds that fairly reflect a bettor’s prospects of winning is paramount to successful betting and we make sure to make it an integral part. EPISODE 58 All the New Year football and Kev’s quiz of 2020. 30 December 2020. There isn’t much between the pair in terms of betting with Donny at 2.66 13/8 and Oxford at 3.0 2/1. It could also be a high-scoring game if you are playing Over 2.5, as Oxford have netted 20.
There are all kinds of misconceptions surrounding football betting. For whatever reason, there are certain statements that get repeated time and time again even though they’re not accurate. And, because they’re repeated so often, people start to believe them as fact. Many of these myths are pretty harmless, but some result in people making poor betting decisions.
A good example of this is the idea that parlays are for suckers. A lot of bettors, even some smart ones, completely avoid parlays because they believe that they are fundamentally “bad” wagers. This is simply not true. Many people lose money on parlays, yes. They’re certainly one of the harder wagers to win money from. But most people lose money on point spreads and totals too. Does that mean that those wagers are also suckers’ bets?
Of course it doesn’t. The fact is that any type of wager CAN be a suckers’ bet. But only if used in the wrong way. If people fail to apply the right strategies, and consistently make mistakes, then they’re going to lose money regardless of what types of wager they place. On the other hand, every type of wager has the potential to be profitable. With a sensible approach, and some appropriate strategies, anyone can make money from any type of wager. Including parlays.
Now, it’s important to note that parlays are actually very popular wagers. Especially on football. Although some bettors choose to avoid them, a lot of people love them. The problem is that many of these people often approach them in the wrong way. In fact, it is for that exact reason why bookmakers love parlays too. Their profit margin on these wagers is typically very high, because most of their customers simply don’t know how to use parlays effectively.
The purpose of this article is to change that, in some small way at least. We’re going to help you avoid throwing money away on parlays, and teach you some strategy for using them when betting on football. We start with a detailed explanation of how they work, and then offer some advice for choosing when to bet them. Next, we outlined our preferred football parlay strategies and explained how to implement them. We finish with a few general tips.Football Parlays Explained
Let’s start with the basics. You can skip this section if you’re already familiar with parlays, and move straight on to the strategy. Please read through this information if you don’t fully understand how football parlays work though.
Parlays are actually a lot simpler than many people think. There are some slightly complicated aspects to them, which we’ll cover shortly, but at a basic level the concept is pretty straightforward.A parlay is just a wager that combines multiple selections into one single bet.
Fundamentally, that’s all there is to parlays. Instead of making one single selection, you make two or more. If each selection is correct, the wager wins. If any of the selections are incorrect, the wager loses. Parlays are obviously harder to win than single selection wagers, but the tradeoff is that the odds are higher. So, when they do win, the payout is bigger.
Here’s a quick comparison of betting singles and betting parlays, to illustrate exactly how parlays work. Let’s say that we’re looking at the NFL games for the upcoming weekend. The following three teams catch our eye.
*Seattle Seahawks (+3.5)
*Dallas Cowboys (-3.5)
*Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5)
Each team is at odds of -110 to cover. We decide to back each team to cover, and place three single wagers of $110. Our total outlay is $330. For each wager that wins, we’ll get back $210. $100 in winnings plus our initial stake of $110. The following outcomes are possible.
*All three teams cover. Our total return is $630 (3 x $210). Our total profit is $300 ($630 – $330).
*Two teams cover, one team doesn’t. Our total return is $420. Our total profit is $90.
*One team covers, two teams don’t. Our total return is $210. We’ve made a loss of $120.
*All three teams fail to cover. We’ve lost our entire $330 outlay.
Now let’s say we decide to place a three team parlay instead of three single wagers. The odds for such a wager are typically +600. We decide to stake $100. There are only two relevant outcomes now.
*All three teams cover. Our total return is $700, for a profit of $600.
*One or more of the teams fails to cover. We’ve lost our $100 stake.
The main advantage of betting a parlay here is obvious. Our potential profit is $600, which is twice the amount we could win if betting three singles. Plus we’re only putting $100 at risk, instead of $330.
The main disadvantage of the parlay is equally obvious. If just one team fails to cover, we get nothing. When we were betting singles, we stood to make a profit if only one team failed to cover. And if two teams failed to cover, we’d still get some of our initial stake money back. The only way we would be at a total loss is if all three teams failed to cover.
This all highlights exactly why parlays are so popular for both bookmakers AND bettors. Bookmakers like them because they’re hard to win. It’s difficult to get one selection correct, and it becomes even more challenging when multiple selections need to be correct. But bettors still like parlays, because they offer the chance to win large sums of money from comparatively small stakes.
There are three more things you need to know about parlays before we move on to the strategy.
*What selections can be included.
*How payouts are calculated.
*The effect of pushes.
The example we provided above was based on using point spread selections. Parlays can use a variety of different selections though. You can include totals, moneylines, props, futures, or just about anything. You can even combine different types. So, for example, you could place a parlay that included a point spread selection and two totals selections. Or you could place a parlay that included two props and three moneyline selections. The number of possible combinations is almost limitless.Calculating parlay payouts
Payouts for parlays can be calculated in two different ways, using fixed odds or true odds. Fixed odds are used only when all the selections in a parlay are at -110 odds, so they’re commonly used for parlays involving point spread and total selections. Potential payouts are directly related to how many selections are in the wager. The exact odds will vary at different bookmakers and betting sites, with something like the following usually in place.NUMBER OF SELECTIONSODDS2+2604+10005+20006+40007+75008+100009+1500010+30000114500012+6000013+7500014+9000015+150000
The true odds method is a little different. With this, the odds for each individual selection are multiplied together to give the total odds for the parlay. The payout is therefore the same as if you were to bet on each selection individually and continuously roll the initial stake and the winnings onto the next selection.Football Gambling Reddit
To make this easier to understand, let’s say we bet a three-selection parlay with odds of -110, -105, and -115. The odds for this parlay using the true odds method would be +596.86, so a $100 stake would return a total of $696.86 if every single selection won.
Now let’s see what happens if we bet each selection individually. $100 at -110 would return a total of $190.91. If we then staked that $190.91 at -105, we’d get $372.63 back. Then, finally, $372.63 at -115 would return the $696.86. As you can see, the profit margins are exactly the same.
As a general rule, true odds parlays offer more value than fixed odds parlays. This is not ALWAYS the case though.
If one or more selections in a parlay result in a push, then those selections are effectively removed from the wager. For example, let’s say we included the following three selections in a parlay.
*Carolina Panthers (+6)
*Oakland Raiders (+3)
*Chicago Bears (-3)
If Carolina and Oakland both covered, but Chicago won by exactly three points, we’d be paid out as if we had placed a two-selection parlay. If only Carolina covered, and the other selections were pushes, we’d be paid out as if we had placed a single wager. Please note that this is only the case when the remaining selections are correct. If you get a couple of pushes, but one selection is incorrect, then the whole parlay still loses.
Congratulations! You now know the basics of parlays. However, what you really need to know is how to make money from them. So let’s move on to the strategy advice.
The first thing you should know about parlays is that they are NOT wagers that you should place on a consistent basis. They should be used sparingly, and only in the right circumstances. Don’t start placing parlays every week just because there’s a chance of winning big. The large potential payouts are obviously appealing, but you shouldn’t chase those payouts just for the sake of it. Not only is this the wrong approach, but it will almost certainly cost you money in the long run.
The question, then, is when SHOULD you use parlays? It’s easy to say that you should use them in the right circumstances, but what exactly do these circumstances look like? There isn’t really a single correct answer to this question, but there is one general rule that you should try to stick to.Only place a parlay when it offers better value than backing each selection individually.
This is essentially the key to betting parlays effectively. If you’ve read our article on betting for value on football, then you’ll understand the importance of value. You’ll know that the goal when betting on football (or any sport) is not simply to win as many wagers as possible. It’s actually to find the wagers that offer the most positive expected value.
Identifying value in the betting markets is really the only way to make regular and consistent profits. And you want to maximize that value as best you can. Parlays CAN be a great way to do this. By identifying value in more than one selection, and then combining those selections into a single wager to increase the potential payout, you can multiply the value exponentially. You won’t win all the time of course, because there’s always the risk of one or more selection letting you down. But the increased payouts when you do win can help improve your overall returns.
However, selections that offer value individually are not GUARANTEED to offer better value when combined into a multiple wager. Parlay betting just isn’t quite that straightforward. You’re not looking to place a parlay every time you like the look of more than one selection. Just because you think that three teams are going to cover this weekend, you don’t automatically put them all in a parlay.
Remember, these are wagers to be used sparingly. You have to choose your spots very carefully. Whenever you’re not sure whether the best option is to place single wagers or a parlay, we recommend sticking to the single wagers.Football Betting How To
When it comes to actually determining whether the best value lies in single wagers or a parlay, this is ultimately a matter of personal judgement. Value itself is subjective anyway, because it can only be calculated by assigning probabilities to possible outcomes. This is not an exact science, but in actuality, it’s a matter of opinion.
The trick is to make your opinion as informed as possible. By assessing and analyzing all the information at your disposal, you should be able to assign probabilities with some degree of accuracy. And, if you can do that, you should also be able to work out when parlays are appropriate and when they are not. It’s basically just a case of determining if the probability of ALL your selections winning is high enough to represent value when compared to the odds available.
If any of this is hard to follow, please go back and read the value betting article we linked earlier. This will help to make things a lot clearer.Our Preferred Football Parlay Strategies
Once you’ve grasped the fundamentals of WHEN to bet football parlays, the next thing to consider is HOW to bet them effectively. We’ve established that the aim should be to bet parlays when they offer the right level of value, but it’s finding that value that’s the hard part. This is where our recommended strategies will help.
Please note that these aren’t necessarily the only strategies to consider. There are all kinds of ways to identify good opportunities for placing a parlay. Ideally, the ultimate goal should be to develop your own strategies that work well for you. But, in the meantime, the following strategies are a good place to start. They’ve certainly worked well for us over the years.
*Parlaying big moneyline favorites
*Parlaying off-market spreads and totals
*Correlated parlays
We rank this as one of the very best football betting strategies to use. It’s pretty simple, reasonably low risk and has the potential for long-term success. Although it won’t lead to huge payouts, it can definitely return modest payouts on a regular basis when implemented properly.
The basic idea here is to find two or more favorites that offer good value on the moneyline. Ideally you’re looking for games where the bookmakers have undervalued the favorites for whatever reason, and priced the odds a little higher than they should be. It’s not easy to find such opportunities, but they happen more often than you might think, especially in college football.
It’s not actually essential for the favorites to be undervalued though. It can be beneficial to include moneyline favorites even if they’re accurately priced. The main aim is to find teams that you think are VERY likely to win. Teams that you give at least an 80% chance of winning are preferable.
If you can find two or more such teams, then consider putting them in a moneyline parlay. In theory, this strategy can work with any number of teams, but three or four is optimal in our experience. With just two, we’re not getting the same multiplicative value in the odds. And with more than four, the chances of an upset start to increase to a level that’s not ideal.
So, let’s say that we’ve studied this week’s upcoming games and we’ve found seven teams that are big moneyline favorites. After studying each of the relevant games, we narrow this down to three teams that we think are very likely to win AND offer the right value. These are as follows.
*West Virginia Mountaineers (-550)
*Stanford Cardinals (-450)
*Mississippi State Bulldogs (-600)
With these odds, our potential payout for a $100 parlay on the three teams to win would be $168.52. That’s a profit of $68.52. We’re risking more than we stand to win, but we’ve got a very good chance of winning. This is precisely why we like this strategy. There will be occasions when an upset will cost us, but we can keep those occasions to a minimum by being very selective.
That’s basically the key to success with this strategy. You have to be selective. Don’t put teams in a parlay just because the odds are low. Make sure that you properly analyze teams, and their opponents, to determine just how likely they are to win. And always check to make sure that the odds are reasonable, and not too low. Only then can you consider putting them in a parlay.
This strategy might seem too simple to be effective. It’s often the simplest strategies that work the best when betting on football though. Even then, you still have to work hard to make this strategy successful. As simple as it is, there’s some significant effort required to identify the right teams to include. It’s not as easy as just picking a few favorites at random.
This strategy used to be more valuable than it is today. This is because the football betting markets are much more effective than they used to be, and off-market odds and lines are much harder to find. They do still exist though, so this strategy remains a good option in the right circumstances.
The theory with this strategy is that we want to take maximum advantage of off-market odds and lines by parlaying them with other selections. To explain this in more detail, let’s first look at what constitutes an off-market line. Here’s an example of one.
*Betting Site ANew York +2-110
*New York +2-115
*New York +2.5-110
*New York +4-110
Does anything immediately stand out to you here? Hopefully, you noticed that Betting Site D has set a spread quite different from the other sites. New York is getting four points here, when they’re only getting two or two and a half points with the others. In this situation, it would probably be wise to back New York simply to take advantage of these extra points.
Unless you can identify a specific reason why they should be getting these extra points, there’s a good chance that Betting Site D made a mistake when developing their lines. Even if they’ve moved the line deliberately because they’ve taken a lot of money on Cincinnati, they’re still effectively giving away value. Their need to balance their book is YOUR gain.
This particular example shows a point spread being out of line with the rest of the market. Similar situations arise with totals too. As we’ve stated, they don’t arise very often though. And they don’t tend to last for very long when they do. So you need to move quickly when you see them. Simply betting the off-market line is a good strategy in itself, but you can improve upon that strategy by placing a parlay.
Combining a selection of an off-market spread or total with one or two other selections essentially allows you to increase the overall value on offer. You need to be careful to only include other selections that you’re very confident will win.
This is another strategy that held more value in the past than it does currently. Again, though, it does still have some merit. It’s just a lot harder to use than it used to be. Bookmakers and betting sites rarely allow genuinely correlated parlays these days, so we have to resort to semi-correlated parlays.
Since some of you may not be fa
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